The Knuckler

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Saturday, September 30, 2006

It's all come down to this

This is hands-down the most exciting time of the season, following the trade deadline, and the playoff picture is almost complete.

The Yankees, Tigers, Twins, and A’s are all in for the American League, as are the Mets in the National League, and in just a few days, the red-hot Astros have a chance to overtake the Cardinals for the N.L. Central crown, while the Padres and Dodgers will close out the N.L. West and Wild Card.

NATIONAL PRIDE

The Cardinals have taken a nose-dive in September, playing well below .500 ball, while the Astros have yet again surged back into contention, despite a patchwork offense, and there’s nothing Albert Pujols can do about it.

For all his hitting prowess, Pujols has been no match for the seemingly never-ending slew of injuries St. Louis has had to deal with, not to mention a complete lack of consistency from their starting pitchers and an unreliable bullpen. Should the Cardinals secure a playoff berth, I can see them being eliminated by a clean sweep at the hands of the Padres or Dodgers, whichever team wins the West.

Ever since the Bobby Abreu trade, Ryan Howard has stepped up big-time and leads the Phillies with an astounding .313 average, 58 HR, and 148 RBI as of September 30, but with the Dodgers and Padres both winning Saturday, Philly has fallen out of contention. With that said, it's still a toss-up between Pujols and Howard for the N.L. MVP.

The Dodgers are the beast that has been rewoken in the National League and a healthy Nomar Garciaparra is a big reason why. While he hasn’t completely avoided the injury bug this year, Nomar is going to finish the season batting over .300 with 20-plus homers and nearly 100 RBI. He’s provided veteran leadership on a team with a healthy mix of up-and-coming young stars like Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, and Russell Martin and battle-tested veterans in the form of Greg Maddux, Derek Lowe and Jeff Kent, and Nomar has shown that he still has some of that resiliency that made him a dangerous presence in the Red Sox lineup in the late 90’s.

The N.L. can at least take solace in the fact that they won’t have to face Mets ace, Pedro Martinez, who is out for the playoffs after suffering a torn tendon in his left calf muscle, and it was discovered Saturday that Martinez also has a torn rotator cuff and will be out up to eight months. Willie Randolph’s crew will be led by Orlando Hernandez in Game 1 at Shea Stadium, followed by Tom Glavine in Game 2, but the rest of the rotation is up in the air for now. Most likely, Steve Trachsel and John Maine will start Games 3 and 4.

AMERICAN DREAMS

I can see the Twins overtaking the Tigers for the A.L. Central crown in the final days. And that would bode well for the Yankees, who are going to play the Wild Card team in the A.L. Division Series, as they owned the Tigers this year, winning five of seven matchups. It would have been a clean sweep were it not for Kyle Farnsworth and Scott Proctor each blowing a save in the Yankees’ losses. The Tigers are a young team with just a handful of players who have had playoff experience, and the Yankees' juggernaut of a lineup could prove to be an insurmountable force. However, with Randy Johnson trying to work his way through a herniated disc, the Yanks will need stellar outings from Chien-Ming Wang, Mike Mussina and the tandem of Jaret Wright and Cory Lidle, in whatever order Joe Torre decides to use them.

The Twins-A’s series will most likely go the distance. Minnesota holds a 6-4 advantage in the season series, and even without phenom Francisco Liriano in the rotation, they are as dangerous as ever. First baseman Justin Morneau in my eyes has distinguished himself as the leading AL MVP candidate for the impressive Twins. His 22 RBI in September thus far puts him at 129 on the season, just eight behind David Ortiz for the overall AL lead, and Morneau has already set career highs in batting average and home runs.

Catcher Joe Mauer holds a commanding lead for the AL batting title, which would make the first catcher to win the title since Ernie Lombardi in 1942 and the first ever in the American League. And on the pitching front, Johan Santana should win the AL Cy Young unanimously with 19 wins, 245 strikeouts and a 2.77 ERA. The game's best lefty and is expected to start Games 1 and 5 for the Twins.

In a five-game series, I would have to say the Twins are the most dangerous, and that’s simply because Santana gets to start twice. There’s no other starter in the playoffs who can dominate to the level he can, and if you add in Minnesota’s incredible bullpen, they’re as close to a lock to advance to the Championship Series as you can get.

2 Comments:

  • At 10/08/2006 04:56:00 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

    Mama mia, you have to work on your picks, Knuckler. Goodness gracious, Santana was pwned. The Athletics took care of business fast. Despite dropping their first game, Leyland seems to be able to fire up his Tigers team and they went on a tear, eliminating the Yanks in short order. It seemed Mussina could not hold a lead nor Johnson handle his back. When you have a Bonderman that is going to throw his best stuff, and not be worried by every batter he faces (especially since every Yankees batter has a lethal potential), well, ci vediamo, Yankees.
    Up in the air... the Padres and Cards.

    Quite a surprise across the board... though the Mets-Dodgers could have gone either way. If it weren't for the rare double play at home...

     
  • At 10/08/2006 08:18:00 PM , Blogger The Knuckler said...

    I was definitely surprised by Oakland's sweep. I thought that the series would go five, with the Twins coming out on top. And as far as the Yankees are concerned, I was totally shocked by their complete lack of heart on-and-off the field. The Tigers wanted it more and that's a big reason why they trounced the Yanks. That, and the Yankees showed themselves to be a group of mercenaries, not a real "team." Now that the Mets made it through the Dodgers so easily, despite having to do it without Pedro and El Duque, and since the Yanks are out, Detroit is the only team that will prove to be tough competition for the Mets. They're just deeper than the A's.

    I'll write a new full entry once the Padres-Cardinals series is decided.

    Thanks for the comment.

     

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