Upsets and surprises

Before I get started with my predictions for the AL and NLCS, I want to talk about how surprised I was to see the Twins and Dodgers out in three and the Padres and Yankees out in four. The common theme in all four series was desire; the team that wanted it more won. Oakland came out strong against the Twins at the Metrodome, riding Frank Thomas' powerful bat to a Game 1 win over the likely AL Cy Young Award winner, Johan Santana. In Game 2, a risky dive by Torii Hunter turned into a Mark Kotsay inside-the-park home run, which became the turning point of the series. After the inside-the-parker, the A's scored two more runs to win both road games, setting up a potential sweep at Network Associates Coliseum in Game 3. Upon their return to Oakland, the men in yellow and green took advantage of an ailing Brad Radke early on with home runs by Eric Chavez and Milton Bradley and got a strong performance out of Danny Haren to complete the sweep. Going in, I felt Minnesota was the most dangerous team in a five-game series, especially with the home field advantage of playing in the loud Metrodome and Santana potentially starting twice, but as everyone saw, that didn't matter. Now Oakland heads into their first ALCS appearance since they lost to the World Series champion Blue Jays in 1992, facing a rejuvenated Tigers team that is coming off three straight dominating wins over the Yankees. With an incredibly talented, yet young, starting staff and a superb bullpen, Detroit shut down the Yankees - heralded as the best lineup in baseball - in Games 2, 3 and 4, forcing their usually patient lineup to swing at pitcher's pitches. Likely A.L. Rookie of the Year, Justin Verlander, overpowered New York with a 100-mph fastball, then baffled them with a hard-bending curveball in the shadows of Game 2. Kenny Rogers pitched the game of his life in Game 3, making the Yankees look foolish with his slow, sweeping curveball and changeups away over 7 2/3, clearly his best postseason performance to date. And then in Game 4, Jeremy Bonderman carried a perfect game into the sixth inning when Robinson Cano broke it up with a single. The Detroit crowd was charged up, and the Yankees didn't stand a chance, especially when Jim Leyland brought Fernando Rodney, 103-mph man Joel Zumaya and closer Todd Jones out of the pen. I expect more of the same when the ALCS shifts back to Comerica Park with the Tigers holding a commanding 2-0 lead going into Game 3. With Rogers and Bonderman taking the mound in Games 3 and 4, Detroit has a legitimate chance to sweep the A's and get to their first World Series since 1984 when they beat the San Diego Padres in five. BIRD HUNTING The Mets made easy work of the Dodgers in their NLDS sweep, despite being without Pedro Martinez and Orlando Hernandez, two key cogs in their rotation. But their absence could hurt them against the Cardinals. With Game 1 being rained out, Tom Glavine now faces more pressure to perform on less rest, starting the opener and being called upon to pitch on three days rest in Game 5. St. Louis got through their Division Series matchup with the Padres with relative ease. Tony LaRussa took no chances with equally weak rotation, pitching ace Chris Carpenter in Games 1 and 4. Thanks to the rain-out Carpenter will go in Game 2, instead of Game 3, which gives the Cards a chance to leave New York with at least one win, and gives them a better opportunity to get past the Mets and back into the World Series. As far as their offense is concerned, it lives and dies with Albert Pujols. Yes, they have Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds and Preston Wilson, but Rolen's been banged up the whole year, Edmonds is now suffering from post-concussion syndrome and Wilson isn't a consistent offensive threat. So aside from Pujols, Juan Encarnacion and Chris Duncan are the other power threats with shortstop David Eckstein trying to set the table at the top of the order. Having said that, the Mets need to do whatever they can to keep Pujols at bay. I wouldn't be surprised if they walk him in most situations, just to avoid him doing damage with one swing of the bat. It could be a dangerous strategy, but it's not as dangerous as it would be if St. Louis had a stronger lineup. The Mets also have to hope for strong performances from John Maine, Steve Trachsel and a suspect Oliver Perez. I noticed a terrible flaw in Perez's mechanics when I watched his last start. Instead of coming all the way around with his front leg, having his foot point straight at home plate, Perez seems to stop short and his lead foot points somewhere between the dugout and home plate, which leaves his arm angle up and hinders his ability to snap his slider. He's a lot more hittable with these flawed mechanics, but if pitching coach Rick Peterson can fix the flaws, Perez has the talent to return to his 239-K season with Pittsburgh in 2004. I don't expect the lefty to get back in track in time for his Game 4 start, but with extensive work in the offseason, he could be a solid contributor in the Mets' 2007 rotation. When it comes to the bullpen, the Mets have a considerable edge and Willie Randolph will not be afraid to pull his starters early because he has that much confidence in his 'pen. Pedro Feliciano has been one of the best lefty relievers this season, Aaron Heilman is one of the better setup men in the game - and if he were on another team, he could be a starter - Guillermo Mota and Chad Bradford have been solid additions, and Billy Wagner can still bring it in the ninth inning. Aside from Jason Isringhausen, who had season-ending hip surgery in September, the Cardinals don't have many, if any, dominating parts in the bullpen. What they do have is plenty of inexperience: Tyler Johnson, Josh Kinney, and Adam Wainwright are rookies, while Brad Thompson is in his second season. Granted, they wouldn't be on the roster if they didn't have talent, but you don't want to rely on this much youth in a playoff atmosphere. So, I would look for the Mets' potent offense to try to get into St. Louis' bullpen as early as possible.