Are they nuts?
Ever since the Yankees-Tigers Sheffield swap I have been sitting back and watching the offseason unfold, and all I can come up with is that either GMs are out of their minds or there is a serious dearth of talent in the major leagues today.
I just cannot understand for the life of me how players like Gary Matthews Jr. and Juan Pierre were able to land such massive contracts: Matthews - 5 years, $50 million with a partial no-trade clause; Pierre - 5 years, $44 million.
Let's start with Matthews first.
Maybe I haven't been paying close enough attention to the free agent market because I wasn't aware that hitting .313 with 19 HR and 79 RBI for the first time in eight seasons as a pro warrants $10 million per year.
Think about this: In 1997, Albert Belle was the league's highest-paid player at, you guessed it, $10 million, and he batted .274 with 30 HR and 116 RBI. The next season Belle upped his average to .328 and finished second in the American League in doubles (48) home runs (49) and RBI (152).
Even with increased revenue, inflated markets and a greater demand for talent, I still don't see how Matthews could get that kind of a contract for his mediocre production.
In case you didn't notice, the MVPs this season, Justin Morneau (AL) and Ryan Howard (NL), earned a combined $740,000. Matthews numbers aren't even in the vicinity of these two legitimate stars, so I can only imagine what kind of dollars they're going to command when they hit free agency. If they use player comparison to aid their cause in securing the maximum amount possible, Morneau and Howard will earn somewhere between $17 and 20 million annually over at least five years. And in my opinion, that borders on insanity.
No individual player deserves that kind of deal, regardless of the market they play in, not even the A-Rods or Pujolses of the world. I honestly do not believe, and the numbers will back me up, that production has increased to such a level that $17 million/year deals are becoming par for the course. Yes, there are several new areas of revenue that weren't around, at least to this degree, even 10 years ago, but that shouldn't matter.
Commissioner Selig and his other MLB cohorts love to site the fact that there have been seven different World Series winners in seven straight seasons as evidence that there is so-called "parity" in the league, but I fervently yet respectfully disagree.
With the free agent market exploding like it has so far this offseason (Carlos Lee signed a six-year, $100 million deal with the Astros and Alfonso Soriano went to the Cubs for $136 million over eight years), small market teams aren't even considering joining the hunt for prized free agents who could really help them.
You know the situation is really getting out of hand when middle reliever Justin Speier is able to get $18 million over four years from the Angels. Over the past three seasons with Toronto, Speier posted a 3.17 ERA with 163 strikeouts and 43 holds in 185 appearances. Solid numbers indeed, but good enough for $4.5 million per year for a middle reliever? I don't think so.
As for Pierre, this is the second year in a row that the Dodgers have doled out a massive contract to a leadoff hitter.
In 2005, Rafael Furcal commanded $39 million over three years to lead off and play shortstop for the Dodgers. And so far that move has paid off as Furcal excelled in 2006, setting career highs in batting average (.300), RBI (63), hits (196), OPS (.814) and games played (159) while tying his career-high for homers with 15 and swiping 37 bases. So why sign Pierre?
Well, for starters, Pierre gives the Dodgers a speedy one-two punch at the top of the order that should bode well for their young sluggers. He has stolen 45 bags or more in six straight seasons, eclipsed 200 hits four times, and if it weren't for the fact that the Cubs had an anemic offense last season, he would have six years in a row with at least 90 runs scored. Pierre is also one of the toughest players in the league to strike out with a mere 249 punchouts in 4,110 at-bats. All solid numbers.
Don't get me wrong, you want your hitters to put the ball in play, because you never know what can happen. But that's not exactly what you look for from a guy who is essentially a slap hitter with minimal power (12 HR in 1,007 games). Case in point, Pierre has 258 walks ... in his career!
Among MLB leadoff men last season, Pierre finished tied for 23rd with 32 free passes. That number needs to at least double if Pierre is going to be anywhere near worth the $9 million the Dodgers are paying him in 2007.
There is still plenty left to unfold as the Winter Meetings begin Monday, and I haven't even shared my thoughts on the apparent obsession with bidding for the rights to Japanese players.
For now, I'll reserve my take on the puzzling process until the agreements have been reached between Daisuke Matsuzaka, Kei Igawa, Akinori Iwamura and their winning bidders.
Hopefully GMs will wake up and realize that they are treading in murky waters with the rapid ascension of contract dollars.
I just cannot understand for the life of me how players like Gary Matthews Jr. and Juan Pierre were able to land such massive contracts: Matthews - 5 years, $50 million with a partial no-trade clause; Pierre - 5 years, $44 million.
Let's start with Matthews first.
Maybe I haven't been paying close enough attention to the free agent market because I wasn't aware that hitting .313 with 19 HR and 79 RBI for the first time in eight seasons as a pro warrants $10 million per year.
Think about this: In 1997, Albert Belle was the league's highest-paid player at, you guessed it, $10 million, and he batted .274 with 30 HR and 116 RBI. The next season Belle upped his average to .328 and finished second in the American League in doubles (48) home runs (49) and RBI (152).
Even with increased revenue, inflated markets and a greater demand for talent, I still don't see how Matthews could get that kind of a contract for his mediocre production.
In case you didn't notice, the MVPs this season, Justin Morneau (AL) and Ryan Howard (NL), earned a combined $740,000. Matthews numbers aren't even in the vicinity of these two legitimate stars, so I can only imagine what kind of dollars they're going to command when they hit free agency. If they use player comparison to aid their cause in securing the maximum amount possible, Morneau and Howard will earn somewhere between $17 and 20 million annually over at least five years. And in my opinion, that borders on insanity.
No individual player deserves that kind of deal, regardless of the market they play in, not even the A-Rods or Pujolses of the world. I honestly do not believe, and the numbers will back me up, that production has increased to such a level that $17 million/year deals are becoming par for the course. Yes, there are several new areas of revenue that weren't around, at least to this degree, even 10 years ago, but that shouldn't matter.
Commissioner Selig and his other MLB cohorts love to site the fact that there have been seven different World Series winners in seven straight seasons as evidence that there is so-called "parity" in the league, but I fervently yet respectfully disagree.
With the free agent market exploding like it has so far this offseason (Carlos Lee signed a six-year, $100 million deal with the Astros and Alfonso Soriano went to the Cubs for $136 million over eight years), small market teams aren't even considering joining the hunt for prized free agents who could really help them.
You know the situation is really getting out of hand when middle reliever Justin Speier is able to get $18 million over four years from the Angels. Over the past three seasons with Toronto, Speier posted a 3.17 ERA with 163 strikeouts and 43 holds in 185 appearances. Solid numbers indeed, but good enough for $4.5 million per year for a middle reliever? I don't think so.
As for Pierre, this is the second year in a row that the Dodgers have doled out a massive contract to a leadoff hitter.
In 2005, Rafael Furcal commanded $39 million over three years to lead off and play shortstop for the Dodgers. And so far that move has paid off as Furcal excelled in 2006, setting career highs in batting average (.300), RBI (63), hits (196), OPS (.814) and games played (159) while tying his career-high for homers with 15 and swiping 37 bases. So why sign Pierre?
Well, for starters, Pierre gives the Dodgers a speedy one-two punch at the top of the order that should bode well for their young sluggers. He has stolen 45 bags or more in six straight seasons, eclipsed 200 hits four times, and if it weren't for the fact that the Cubs had an anemic offense last season, he would have six years in a row with at least 90 runs scored. Pierre is also one of the toughest players in the league to strike out with a mere 249 punchouts in 4,110 at-bats. All solid numbers.
Don't get me wrong, you want your hitters to put the ball in play, because you never know what can happen. But that's not exactly what you look for from a guy who is essentially a slap hitter with minimal power (12 HR in 1,007 games). Case in point, Pierre has 258 walks ... in his career!
Among MLB leadoff men last season, Pierre finished tied for 23rd with 32 free passes. That number needs to at least double if Pierre is going to be anywhere near worth the $9 million the Dodgers are paying him in 2007.
There is still plenty left to unfold as the Winter Meetings begin Monday, and I haven't even shared my thoughts on the apparent obsession with bidding for the rights to Japanese players.
For now, I'll reserve my take on the puzzling process until the agreements have been reached between Daisuke Matsuzaka, Kei Igawa, Akinori Iwamura and their winning bidders.
Hopefully GMs will wake up and realize that they are treading in murky waters with the rapid ascension of contract dollars.
posted by The Knuckler @ 11/27/2006 07:43:00 PM
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