The Knuckler

Check out MSG.com for the weekly "Batt'r Up!" baseball podcast show, featuring my fantasy segment.

Wednesday, August 30, 2006

September call-ups; MVP thoughts

It's an exciting time in baseball. Not only are the playoffs drawing closer and closer, but on September 1st, all MLB rosters expand to 40 and the game's top prospects get to be showcased for the final month of the season. You have to love this time of the year. As a fan, it's great to see the minor leaguers who have been hyped up by your favorite organization all year long. Maybe you even saw them have an audition during Spring Training. Regardless of what you've seen or heard, all that matters is if they produce when they're called up to "The Show." So without further ado, here are some up-and-comers to watch closely. Tampa Bay's volatile and occasionally controversial budding star, Delmon Young, may have been suspended for 50 games for throwing a bat an umpire, but the game's top prospect was called up a few days early and was promptly hit by a pitch in his first big league plate appearance by Chicago's Freddy Garcia. However, Young got his revenge later in the game with his first Major League hit, a two-run homer to deep left. Once I heard the Rays called him up, I pounced on him in every league where I had room for him and he's now in my starting outfield. I expect great things out of Young, as I'm sure everyone in the Tampa Bay organization does, and if he performs up to his potential, he should be in the Rays' starting outfield on Opening Day in 2007. Manager Joe Maddon has said that Young will be the everyday starting right fielder straight through the end of the season. As a result, picking Young up now isn't as risky as it was earlier in the season, or, for someone like myself, on Draft Day in the lower rounds. Hey, if he wouldn't have had that incident with the umpire, my decision to draft him late probably wouldn't have looked as bad. I don't regret it. Next year, no one will question his selection. In fact, I'll probably have to pick him a few rounds earlier if I really want him. Several young hitters have emerged this year, especially in Los Angeles (read: Andre Ethier), but there are also some promising pitchers to watch out for in the A.L. Central. When Francisco Liriano went down with a strained ligament in his left elbow, the Twins had no choice but to call up their next budding star in Matt Garza. The 6-foot-4 righty showed his nerves by giving up 7 runs in 2 2/3 innings in his major league debut against Toronto, but in three starts since he has pitched well enough to win each game, if only the Twins would give him some run support. Garza has gone deeper into the game with each successive start, but has only received seven total runs of support in four starts. With Brad Radke going to retire at the end of the season, the Twins seem to have found the third piece of a dominant trio that can last for several years in Minnesota. Garza is an excellent compliment to Johan Santana and Francisco Liriano. And while it could be hard to say who should be the No. 1 or the No. 2 between the two dominant lefties, tossing Garza in between Santana and Liriano could create a devastating lefty-righty-lefty 1-2-3 punch. If you can afford the risk heading into fantasy playoffs, take a chance on Garza picking up some wins and striking out more batters. The Twins are going places and with the Tigers slipping of late, they still have a shot at not just the Wild Card, but also the division title. Speaking of the Tigers, they made an interesting move when they called up Andrew Miller after just three games at Class-A Lakeland. Check this out. Miller went 13-2 with a 2.48 ERA at North Carolina, and just three months ago pitched in the College World Series. Standing at 6-feet-6 inches tall, the 21-year-old has a 98-mph fastball and his intimidating delivery was good for nine strikeouts in five innings of relief work in three games in the Florida State League. He won't be making any starts for Jim Leyland's club just yet, but he will provide the likely Manager of the Year with a lefty power arm down the stretch. Now, as far as fantasy playoffs are concerned, I’ve had the pleasant fortune of making it to the second season with all of my teams. So I’m going to let you in on a little bit of my personal strategy for getting to the final round and hopefully winning bragging rights until next year. For those of you who play head-to-head, my preferred style, live for each week. Don’t rely on those players riding your DL. It’s too late for them to have a huge impact on your playoff run, especially when their return date remains uncertain. So if you have someone like Jim Edmonds, a usual fantasy producer who’s unfortunately suffering from post-concussion syndrome, it’s time to cut him loose and take a shot with someone like Edmonds’ replacement, Chris Duncan, or the aforementioned Delmon Young. Shea Hillenbrand and Jeff Kent are also good options, if they aren't already owned in your league. As far as pitching goes, sometimes you have to sacrifice your ERA for a few key wins. And if that’s the path you take, Steve Trachsel is the man for you. Trachs has gone 12-1 over 15 starts since June 9, and has enjoyed nearly nine runs of support per game from the Mets' offense for his efforts. New York’s magic number to clinch the N.L. East is dropping every day, but with injuries to Pedro Martinez and Tom Glavine, they need Trachsel to remain consistent for another month. MVP MUSINGS My Leading N.L. Candidate: Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies The Phillies practically had a fire sale at the trade deadline, but somehow they were able to improve and Ryan Howard is a huge reason why. The big lefty has 49 homers and 128 RBI with a .299 batting average as of August 31st, so a line of 60 homers, 150 RBI and a .300 average is definitely not out of the question. Factor in the Phillies’ legitimate shot at the Wild Card and you have an MVP in the making. Right now, a lot of people are talking about the Mets' Carlos Beltran or the Cardinals' Albert Pujols, but in this writer's opinion, if Howard keeps up his production and helps the Phillies win more games, he deserves the award. Remember, this is the man who made Philadelphia forget about Jim Thome and won the N.L. Rookie of the Year award in 2005 with an astonishing 22 HR and 63 RBI in 88 games. My Leading A.L. Candidate: Derek Jeter, SS, New York Yankees Over in the American League, there are several players to choose from, all of which have strong cases that can be made in their favor. There's Justin Morneau on the surging Twins (.319, 32 HR, 110 RBI), Travis Hafner on the Indians (.310, 42 HR, 116 RBI), Jermaine Dye on the defending champion White Sox (.327, 39 HR, 106 RBI) and David "Big Papi" Ortiz on the Red Sox (.287, 47 HR, 121 RBI). Just a month ago, Ortiz was the leading candidate after his runner-up finish to Alex Rodriguez in MVP voting last season, but with Boston taking a nose dive (likely out of playoff contention), and Ortiz spending time in the hospital undergoing tests for an irregular heartbeat, I now have to give my nod to Derek Jeter. It's about time the Yankees' captain received some recognition. After all, the award is called "Most Valuable Player," not "Player with the Best Offensive Stats," and Jeter is just that. A mainstay in the Bronx, Jeter is in the midst of his best offensive season since 1999, and has come through time and time again when it looked like the Yankees might not make the playoffs for the first time since 1993. (The playoffs were canceled in 1994's strike-shortened season.) He is batting over .390 with runners in scoring position, a higher mark than all of the other A.L. MVP hopefuls, and he has driven in 83 runs mainly out of the No. 2 hole. On top of that, he is also playing stellar defense and has stolen 27 bases. As with every close race, it all comes down to who gets on the hottest streak in September. Anyone else remember when Jason Giambi popped 13 homers and drove in 32 runs in September of 2000 to win the A.L. MVP that year?

Thursday, August 17, 2006

Fun with numbers

Since fantasy baseball is all about the numbers, I decided to put together two interesting lists. In this entry, I'll give you my picks for the top players at each spot in the batting order. Click here for comparative stats #1. Jose Reyes, SS, New York Mets The 23-year-old stands out among all leadoff men throughout the majors primarily for the way his speed impacts the game. Reyes has been the lightning rod atop the Mets' impressive offense all season long, and has vastly improved upon his numbers from last season. His season numbers are very similar to that of Indians centerfielder Grady Sizemore, but the switch-hitting phenom remains my pick for this spot in the order. #2. Derek Jeter, SS, New York Yankees It's hard to argue in favor of anyone else here. Jeter has been getting the job done in the No. 2 slot since 1998, and the seven-time All-Star is in the midst of a career year. Jeter could also garner significant votes for MVP. Michael Young comes in at a close second, but he has almost double the amount of at-bats in the three hole as Jeter does. #3. Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals The total numbers here could suggest that my selection here is wrong, that I should choose David Ortiz, but considering the fact that Pujols missed nearly three weeks in June when he was leading the majors in several categories, I have to stick with the best hitter in baseball. #4. Manny Ramirez, LF, Boston Red Sox This slugger started out slow, but he recently ended a 27-game hit streak and is closing in on his 11th season with at least 30 home runs and 100 RBI. #5. Jermaine Dye, RF, Chicago White Sox Dye is enjoying a career year in the Windy City and has been able to stay healthy. He is also one of four ChiSox - Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, and Joe Crede being the others - with at least 80 RBI so far. #6. Ben Broussard, 1B, Seattle Mariners Acquired from the Cleveland Indians mid-season, Broussard has filled in nicely. In 15 games with Seattle, half of his hits have gone for extra bases, and he should be a solid hitter in the middle of the M's order for the rest of the season. #7. Orlando Hudson, 2B, Arizona Diamondbacks Typically known for his slick fielding, Hudson is hitting .397 with 33 runs and an impressive 1.096 OPS in this spot in the order, as opposed to .215 and .219 in the same number of at-bats in the two and eight spots respectively. #8. Russell Martin, C, Los Angeles Dodgers One of several rookies who have played a major role in the Dodgers' rejuvenation, Martin is establishing himself as a solid fantasy catcher, driving in runs and even stealing some bases. The Canadian import is also solid behind the plate with a .995 fielding percentage in 80 games. #9. Jason Bartlett, SS, Minnesota Twins Showing considerable improvement from last season, Bartlett is worth consideration among middle infielders in deep fantasy leagues. Since being called up on June 14, Bartlett has been a solid addition to Minnesota's infield leading the team with a .369 batting average in 57 games. Check back over the weekend for my list of the best at each position, and feel free to toss some names at me that you think I may have discounted.

Thursday, August 10, 2006

Waiver wire moves

Though the moves are harder to make, teams can use the waiver wire to swap players. Thus far, there have only been four such deals pulled off, and just two of real significance -- Orioles catcher/first baseman Javy Lopez to the Red Sox for a player still to be named later, and Nationals starting pitcher Livan Hernandez to the Diamondbacks for minor leaguers Garrett Mock and Matt Chico.

With Jason Varitek out at least 4-to-6 weeks, maybe longer, due to knee surgery, the Red Sox needed to fill the void, so they went out and got Lopez, who was not happy with the amount of playing time he was receiving in Baltimore. The most interesting thing here is Boston's inability to complete the deal because the Devil Rays are claiming anyone and everyone the Red Sox try to clear through waivers and ship to the O's.

According to reports, Tampa Bay is furious with Boston, claiming that the Red Sox illegally contacted the agent for shortstop Julio Lugo, thus hindering the Rays' efforts to sign Lugo to a long-term extension.

Regardless of how it all shakes out, Lopez is an improvement over backup catcher Doug Mirabelli, who with Tim Wakefield on the DL doesn't have a ton of value to the club. However, Lopez's production has been on the decline since he hit a career-high 43 home runs in 129 games in 2003 while with Atlanta.

He may still pop a few long balls at Fenway Park, but there are much better options to choose from at catcher in fantasy baseball. Brian McCann, Michael Barrett, and even Mike Piazza would have a greater effect on your team than Lopez.

The acquisition of Livan Hernandez bodes very well for Arizona. Despite a poor first half in which he went 6-8 with a 5.94 ERA, Hernandez has reeled off five straight quality starts since the All-Star break, going 3-0 with 23 strikeouts against just four walks in 33 innings with a 3.27 ERA. He has plenty of postseason experience, including a World Series title with the Marlins in 1997, and he is certainly not afraid of pitching in high-pressure situations.

It's a five-team race in the N.L. West and this move definitely gives Arizona an edge as they strive to win their division. It also doesn't hurt that they have a budding mix of youngsters and veterans with Stephen Drew, Carlos Quentin, Luis Gonzalez and Shawn Green.

Don't be scared by Hernandez's season totals. He is an innings-eater who gets plenty of strikeouts and thrives on being a go-to guy. Brandon Webb is still the ace of the staff, but Hernandez gives Arizona a solid one-two punch that could be every effective in the postseason.