The Knuckler

Check out MSG.com for the weekly "Batt'r Up!" baseball podcast show, featuring my fantasy segment.

Thursday, May 24, 2007

I moved to TypePad

This blog has moved to TypePad.

You can read it at http://blogs.msg.com/the_knuckler .

Monday, November 27, 2006

Are they nuts?

Ever since the Yankees-Tigers Sheffield swap I have been sitting back and watching the offseason unfold, and all I can come up with is that either GMs are out of their minds or there is a serious dearth of talent in the major leagues today.

I just cannot understand for the life of me how players like Gary Matthews Jr. and Juan Pierre were able to land such massive contracts: Matthews - 5 years, $50 million with a partial no-trade clause; Pierre - 5 years, $44 million.

Let's start with Matthews first.

Maybe I haven't been paying close enough attention to the free agent market because I wasn't aware that hitting .313 with 19 HR and 79 RBI for the first time in eight seasons as a pro warrants $10 million per year.

Think about this: In 1997, Albert Belle was the league's highest-paid player at, you guessed it, $10 million, and he batted .274 with 30 HR and 116 RBI. The next season Belle upped his average to .328 and finished second in the American League in doubles (48) home runs (49) and RBI (152).

Even with increased revenue, inflated markets and a greater demand for talent, I still don't see how Matthews could get that kind of a contract for his mediocre production.

In case you didn't notice, the MVPs this season, Justin Morneau (AL) and Ryan Howard (NL), earned a combined $740,000. Matthews numbers aren't even in the vicinity of these two legitimate stars, so I can only imagine what kind of dollars they're going to command when they hit free agency. If they use player comparison to aid their cause in securing the maximum amount possible, Morneau and Howard will earn somewhere between $17 and 20 million annually over at least five years. And in my opinion, that borders on insanity.

No individual player deserves that kind of deal, regardless of the market they play in, not even the A-Rods or Pujolses of the world. I honestly do not believe, and the numbers will back me up, that production has increased to such a level that $17 million/year deals are becoming par for the course. Yes, there are several new areas of revenue that weren't around, at least to this degree, even 10 years ago, but that shouldn't matter.

Commissioner Selig and his other MLB cohorts love to site the fact that there have been seven different World Series winners in seven straight seasons as evidence that there is so-called "parity" in the league, but I fervently yet respectfully disagree.

With the free agent market exploding like it has so far this offseason (Carlos Lee signed a six-year, $100 million deal with the Astros and Alfonso Soriano went to the Cubs for $136 million over eight years), small market teams aren't even considering joining the hunt for prized free agents who could really help them.

You know the situation is really getting out of hand when middle reliever Justin Speier is able to get $18 million over four years from the Angels. Over the past three seasons with Toronto, Speier posted a 3.17 ERA with 163 strikeouts and 43 holds in 185 appearances. Solid numbers indeed, but good enough for $4.5 million per year for a middle reliever? I don't think so.

As for Pierre, this is the second year in a row that the Dodgers have doled out a massive contract to a leadoff hitter.

In 2005, Rafael Furcal commanded $39 million over three years to lead off and play shortstop for the Dodgers. And so far that move has paid off as Furcal excelled in 2006, setting career highs in batting average (.300), RBI (63), hits (196), OPS (.814) and games played (159) while tying his career-high for homers with 15 and swiping 37 bases. So why sign Pierre?

Well, for starters, Pierre gives the Dodgers a speedy one-two punch at the top of the order that should bode well for their young sluggers. He has stolen 45 bags or more in six straight seasons, eclipsed 200 hits four times, and if it weren't for the fact that the Cubs had an anemic offense last season, he would have six years in a row with at least 90 runs scored. Pierre is also one of the toughest players in the league to strike out with a mere 249 punchouts in 4,110 at-bats. All solid numbers.

Don't get me wrong, you want your hitters to put the ball in play, because you never know what can happen. But that's not exactly what you look for from a guy who is essentially a slap hitter with minimal power (12 HR in 1,007 games). Case in point, Pierre has 258 walks ... in his career!

Among MLB leadoff men last season, Pierre finished tied for 23rd with 32 free passes. That number needs to at least double if Pierre is going to be anywhere near worth the $9 million the Dodgers are paying him in 2007.

There is still plenty left to unfold as the Winter Meetings begin Monday, and I haven't even shared my thoughts on the apparent obsession with bidding for the rights to Japanese players.

For now, I'll reserve my take on the puzzling process until the agreements have been reached between Daisuke Matsuzaka, Kei Igawa, Akinori Iwamura and their winning bidders.

Hopefully GMs will wake up and realize that they are treading in murky waters with the rapid ascension of contract dollars.

Friday, November 10, 2006

Sayonara Sheffield!

I know I haven't updated my blog since the Kenny Rogers fiasco, but I've been incredibly busy, so please forgive me.

I was going to start off with the insanity that is bidding for Seibu Lions pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka, but I just heard that Yankees outfielder Gary Sheffield was dealt to the Tigers for Humberto Sanchez, Kevin Whelan and Anthony Claggett, and that makes me extremely happy!

Finally, the Yankees made the move I have been waiting for them to make since they lost to the Diamondbacks, who by the way have nice new threads, in 2001.

The deal was finalized just a day after Sheffield criticized the Yankees "middle men" for not allowing him to contact owner George Steinbrenner directly, and after the tempermental slugger dismissed Bobby Abreu as a lesser talent.

Said Sheffield, "I always was told that you leave because somebody's better than you, and I don't think that's the case here."

Well I guess you were wrong, Gary, because Abreu is still here and you're headed to Motown.

In return for Sheff, the Yankees get a highly talented, young arm in Sanchez. The 23-year-old was a combined 10-6 with a 2.53 ERA and 129 strikeouts in 123 innings with Triple-A Toledo and Double-A Erie in 2006.

With Sanchez in tow, the Bronx Bombers could boast a rotation that features their new ace, 26-year-old Chien-Ming Wang (19-6, 3.63 ERA, 76 K in 218 IP), their top prospect in Philip Hughes (6'5", 220, 20 years old), who went 12-6 with a 2.16 ERA and 168 strikeouts in 146 IP split between single-A Tampa and double-A Trenton in 2006, and the aforementioned Sanchez. It could be one of the youngest, most talented trios the Yankees have had in years.

As far as the offense goes, Sheffield's departure leaves the Yankees with only one power righty in the lineup, Alex Rodriguez. I don't think it will make that much of a difference though because the Yanks still scored a ton of runs with Sheffield out of the lineup for a few months. Also, Hideki Matsui should be at full strength, and both Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera will most likely develop more power than they showed this past season. The Yankees will certainly not be hurting on offense, and the move can also open up more playing time at first basefor Andy Phillips, who is a definite upgrade on defense. And lastly, it makes it clear that Jason Giambi will be the full-time designated hitter.

GM Brian Cashman was very wise in deciding to pick up Sheffield's option for 2007. It allowed the Yankees to control where Sheffield would play, and it also assured them that they would get something worthwhile in return.

TURNING JAPANESE

As for the Matsuzaka madness, the latest report is that the Red Sox offered the top bid for the World Baseball Classic MVP in the range of $38 to 45 million! I don't know about you, but I would never make that kind of offer to an unproven, untested player. And that's just for the rights to negotiate with him!

Matsuzaka is 26 years old, has been clocked in the mid-to-upper 90s, has solid offspeed pitches and is known for his "gyroball." Don't get me wrong, if that scouting report is legit, then he would instantly be one of the best pitchers in the majors. But if he comes to the States and is more like Kaz Matsui than Hideki Matsui, or more Hideki Irabu than Ichiro, the team that signs him is in for a serious letdown.

The Japanese sensation is going to be an international free agent after the 2007 season, so if no one signed him this year, he would only cost the amount of his playing contract. To me, that's the more sane approach. But on the other hand, I can see why teams are trying to one-up each other in the pursuit of Matsuzaka. Again, if the talent is legit, then he's worth the expensive free-for-all.

The only snafu that could arise for the highest bidder is if they are unable to come to an agreement with the righty in the 30-day window they have after the Lions have accepted their bid. And let's not forget, it is going to be one expensive agreement.

Take a guess why ... Yeah, that's right, his agent is Scott Boras.


UPDATE:

The Red Sox won the bidding rights to Matsuzaka with a bid of $51.1 million. They have until midnight on Dec. 14 to come to an agreement.

Monday, October 23, 2006

'The Gambler' now 'The Cheater?'

In Game 2 of the World Series, the FOX cameras caught a shot of a foreign substance on Kenny Rogers' pitching hand in the first inning. From what I could see, it appeared to be a brownish-orange color on the left side of his palm. It looked like a mixture of dirt and resin, as Rogers claims it was, and I believe him. How else would you explain the next seven innings where he gave up only one hit to the Cardinals after washing off the gunk before the second inning?

In my opinion, it's sad to see such a big deal made out of this, especially when Rogers is having an incredible run in the postseason. After the Game 2 win, he is now 3-0 with 23 consecutive scoreless innings. Every time he goes out on the mound, he's fired up, unleashing primal screams on strikeouts and double plays successfully turned. Should the series reach Game 6 and Rogers pitches another gem, he would be my pick for World Series MVP.

Friday, October 20, 2006

Tigers vs. Cardinals: Round Three

Who would have ever thought that the two playoff teams that performed the worst down the stretch would wind up facing each other in the World Series?!

When Yadier Molina hit Aaron Heilman's hanging changeup out of the reach of Endy Chavez, who earlier made an outstanding, full-extension, over-the-wall catch to rob Scott Rolen of a two-run homer, everybody's World Series predictions went out the window.

Instead of a potential Subway Series, which many people, including yours truly, thought was a solid possibility heading into the playoffs, we will now see the Detroit Tigers (A.L. Wild Card) face off against the St. Louis Cardinals (N.L. Central) for the third time and first since 1968.

In the first matchup in 1934, the Cardinals won their third World Series title in seven games. With a rotation led by young brothers Dizzy (24 years old, 2.66 ERA, 30-7, 195 K in 311.2 IP) and Paul Dean (20 years old, 3.43 ERA, 19-11, 150 K in 233.1 IP), and an offense powered by an outstanding season from first baseman Ripper Collins (.333, 35 HR, 128 RBI, 2oo hits), the Cardinals battled the Tigers pretty evenly throughout the first six games, but came out and destroyed Detroit in Game 7 with an 11-0 shutout.

34 years later, the two teams went at it again, but this time around it was the Tigers who came out on top in Game 7. It was a battle of aces, Detroit's Mickey Lolich vs. Cardinals Hall-of-Famer Bob Gibson. Each won their first two games in the series - Lolich Games 2 and 5, Gibson Games 1 and 4 - but in the head-to-head matchup Lolich got the better of the 1.12 ERA man with a 4-1 complete game victory.

In the 2006 edition, I don't expect the series to be even close to seven games. The Tigers are by far a better team. They can hit, run, pitch, play defense and their bullpen is the best in the game. It's been a week since they've played, but instead of being rusty they should be well-rested and ready to dominate. Sean Casey and Joel Zumaya have had sufficient time to recover from their injuries and will be an important part of the Tigers' success. Casey is a great defender who has a great eye and can go gap-to-gap at the plate, while Zumaya is practically unhittable throwing his 103-MPH fastball.

Justin Verlander will start Game 1 against fellow rookie Anthony Reyes, and then it will be Kenny Rogers vs. Jeff Weaver in Game 2 followed by Nate Robertson vs. Chris Carpenter and Jeremy Bonderman vs. Jeff Suppan in Games 3 and 4.

I'll give St. Louis credit for getting to the Series, but I can't give them too much because the National League was so much weaker than the American League this year. Four A.L. teams - Toronto, Boston, Chicago and Anaheim - finished with better records than the Cards, and even the Phillies had a better mark, but none of them made the playoffs. The competition was much stiffer in the A.L. Detroit finished the season 11 1/2 games better than St. Louis and yet they played like a mediocre team throughout most of the second half.

The teams match up nicely, in terms of their makeup, but Detroit is just stronger all around. The Tigers outfielders have the speed to cover the spacious outfield in Comerica Park. Their infielders all have good range, soft hands and good arms, especially 11-time Gold Glove catcher Pudge Rodriguez and four-time winner Kenny Rogers. They are not the most patient bunch at the plate, but the Tigers bats worked hard and wore down the opposition's pitchers in the Division Series and the Championship Series. I expect to see them do the same in Games 1 and 2 against Reyes and Weaver, but if they are smart, they will be a bit more aggressive in Games 3 and 4 against Carpenter and Suppan who were throwing first-pitch strikes to almost every Mets hitter they faced in the NLCS.

St. Louis' offense revolves around Albert Pujols. But with Pujols trying to work through a hamstring injury, the Cards will need their supplementary parts to come through like they did against the Mets. Scott Spiezio, Chris Duncan, So Taguchi and Yadier Molina all came up with big hits in the NLCS, and if the Cardinals want to win their first World Series since 1982 - a seven-game win over the Milwaukee Brewers - they will need more of the same against Detroit's very potent pitching staff.

It would be great if they got solid production out of their big bats - Pujols, Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds - but very often playoff series are decided by that role player who comes up with a career moment. Just look at Molina against the Mets. The catcher known for his defensive prowess batted a paltry .216 with six home runs and 49 RBI in 129 games in the regular season, but in the NLCS he torched the Mets with eight hits in 23 at-bats, two homers, and seven RBI, including the series-winning two-run shot.

The games should be fun to watch, but with no big market presence and no historical angle, unlike last year's White Sox winning for the first time in 88 years and the 2004 Red Sox winning for the first time in 86 years, this will be another poorly-rated series.

My prediction: Tigers in five.